World Cup Odds By Team
When the 2019 Women’s World Cup kicks off Friday, the initial match will contain FiveThirtyEight’s pre-tournament championship favorite — and no, the U.S. women won’t be on the field.The Americans don’t play their first game until June 11.
'>One week into the 2018 FIFA World Cup, it’s very much up in the air what team will ultimately win the championship.Months before the tournament began, Germany was given the highest odds of winning the World Cup, at 9/2. That means a $100 bet placed back then on Germany to win the championship would pay off $450, plus the original $100.
1- Iceland's World Cup Fixtures. Above you'll find all of Iceland's fixtures as well as Iceland's results from Qatar 2022. See our World Cup results page for more full-time results. Plus, click on the 'Match Odds' link under one of Iceland's fixtures and you'll be able to see the best odds that sportsbooks offer on the game.
- It's been a crazy and unpredictable World Cup, which is why a team like France has.
Our American readers might be wondering, what gives?First we declare the Golden State Warriors to not be NBA Finals favorites, and now this?
'>2 Why is the defending-champion (and world No. 1-ranked) USWNT not the best bet to take home its fourth World Cup in the eight-tournament history of the event? After all, the last time the Americans didn’t win (back in 2011), it was a major upset that required Japan to score a dramatic tying goal in the 117th minute and win on penalties. And U.S. head coach Jill Ellis calls this year’s roster “probably the most talented we’ve had going into a major tournament like this, in my opinion.”But France is playing at home this year, and our model has traditionally given a big boost to the host country in international soccer tournaments. In the past, our research has found that soccer’s home-field advantage is worth two to three times as much as in, say, the NFL. There is recent evidence that this advantage is on the decline, though, so France’s added boost is a bit smaller than what historical World Cup results suggest the host team should receive. But even so, that edge is enough to lift France, the world’s second-most talented team (according to our Soccer Power Index ratings), past the top-ranked Americans for the title of most-likely champs.
| SPI Ratings | Chance team will … | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Group | Off. | Def. | Overall | Win Group | Make Knockouts | Win WC |
| France | A | 4.1 | 0.6 | 95.3 | 71% | 97% | 20% |
| USA | F | 5.1 | 0.7 | 97.2 | 76 | >99 | 18 |
| Germany | B | 4.2 | 0.7 | 94.2 | 61 | 95 | 11 |
| England | D | 3.6 | 0.6 | 92.7 | 55 | >99 | 10 |
Each team’s specific path through the tournament matters quite a bit as well. The USWNT wasn’t the highest-rated team in the field last time around, but it was our model’s overall favorite despite drawing the dreaded “group of death” for the initial stage of the tournament. This year, the Americans drew one of the easiest groups, at least in terms of bottom-feeders (Chile and Thailand), and the hosting French got stuck in the group of death. But thanks to the persistent presence of longtime nemesis Sweden, the U.S. won’t necessarily be guaranteed to win Group F — and even if it does, the winner of the group will face Group B’s runner-up (most likely either Spain or China, a couple of solid sides defensively) in the round of 16 and then very likely the winner of Group A in the quarterfinals. The most probable team to be waiting there? France.
That’s why the Americans’ odds of making the semifinals are just 46 percent this year, compared with 65 percent back in 2015. That year, the USWNT went through Colombia (the team rated fifth-lowest by SPI in the field) in the round of 16 and then China (a middle-of-the-field team by SPI) in the quarterfinals before running into top-rated Germany in the semis. (As neither team was the host, SPI had that match relatively even, and the U.S. won 2-0.) This time, the Americans are more likely to face tougher teams earlier in the tournament — which also has the byproduct of giving those tougher opponents fewer chances to be upset before making their way into the U.S.’s path.
And there’s the fact that this year’s field is deeper and more dangerous than perhaps any other in Women’s World Cup history. Among the soccer cognoscenti, there’s a distinct sense that the rest of the world is quickly catching up to the United States in terms of talent on the women’s side, where America has traditionally had a strong first-mover advantage. That’s borne out in the numbers, too: Our model thinks more teams have more of a chance this year than it did four years ago:
All of this is before even getting into the specific on-field flaws that might haunt the U.S.’s bid for a second straight World Cup victory.
But that’s not to say the USWNT looks weak this time around. The Americans still have the best team in the tournament on paper, and it took every bit of France’s home-field edge to deny the U.S. the favorite status. They have plenty of stars from World Cups past, present and future. There’s a solid chance that they will win it all again. (I personally would love to attend another victory parade down the Canyon of Heroes this summer.) Still, it will be a tougher path than usual, thanks to a vicious combination of geography, the knockout bracket and the parity growing across women’s international soccer. And while that might mean heartbreak for the U.S. and its fans, it should also make for an exciting tournament over the next month.
Check out our latest Women’s World Cup predictions.
2021 Pegasus World Cup Profile: Jesus’ Team
In the days leading up to the $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Florida, usracing.com will profile the horses in the race set for Jan. 23. The profiles will be updated on Jan. 20 with morning-line odds, post positions and jockeys.
By Ed McNamara
This unheralded colt proved you don’t have to finish first to enrich your owner and the bettors. Finishing second as the longest shot in the field (62-1) in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) and third at 40-1 in the Preakness (G1) made megabucks for Grupo 7C Racing Stable and anybody who used Jesus’ Team underneath in trifectas and superfectas.
When Grupo 7C put up $25,000 to supplement him to the Preakness, it looked like a wild stab. Turns out it wasn’t, because third was worth $110,000. Nice score.
Despite a six-race losing streak, Jesus’ Team (say hay-SOOS) earned more than half a million last year, when his only off-the-board finish in a stakes was a fourth in the Grade 1 Haskell. He’s 3-for-4 on Gulfstream’s main track, including a win Dec. 5 in the Claiming Crown at 9 furlongs, the Pegasus’ distance. I can’t recommend a win bet, but he’s a must-use in exotic plays. A repeat of the Knicks Go-Jesus’ Team exacta in the Dirt Mile would be no shock. It just wouldn’t pay $219.60 again.
Jesus’ Team went 6 furlongs in 1:13.40 in a stamina-building breeze Jan. 9 at Palm Meadows. “The hard work was last week,” trainer Jose D’Angelo said. “He did it the way I want. I wanted an easy work. I think he’s ready.”
Pegasus World Cup Profile: Jesus’ Team
Post position: TBD
Odds: TBD
Trainer: Jose D’Angelo
Jockey: TBD
World Cup Soccer Odds Vegas
Owner: Grupo 7C Racing Stable
Age: 4
Career record: 13-3-4-3
Career earnings: $518,540
Top Equibase speed figure: 114
Pedigree: Tapiture-Golden Memories, by Suave
Color: Bay
Running style: Mid-pack rallier
Notes: Jesus’ Team is not a religious reference. He’s named for the owner’s son. The Grupo 7C stable also has a 4-year-old named Charly Jesus’ Team, who’s 0-for-3 with $700 in career earnings. The good ones pay for the bad ones … Three months ago, D’Angelo said: “In all his races, I think Jesus’ Team runs his best race last to front. I think that will be his best way in the Preakness.” That’s what he did at Pimlico, rallying from eighth on the backstretch to be a distant third to Swiss Skydiver.
World Cup Odds By Team Predictions
Pegasus World Cup Contenders
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