Betting On The 2020 Republican Primary Nominee It’s not a very chic thing to be a Republican in America in 2020 giving the current political climate. The caricatured meme of Republicans is that they’re xenophobic bigots who are stuck in the past. Nikki Haley and Mike Pence are the other early front-runners This page monitors the online betting odds to win the 2024 Republican party presidential nomination. Soon-to-be one-term President Donald Trump is among the contenders, but finds a couple names ahead of him on the board, including his VEEP. Hence, betting odds for the Republican nomination have gained newfound momentum. Market predictions, polls, and odds work collaboratively to give political bettors everything needed to make informed bets on the Republican primary. Republican Odds To Win The 2020 Primary Nomination And General Election. 2020 Presidential Election Update (11/4): Republican incumbent Donald Trump looks like he will lose reelection, but there are still votes coming in from several important swing states, and you can bet on these outcomes at the best Presidential election betting sites. Additionally, there are guaranteed to be recount odds. Take, for example, John Barrasso of Wyoming, the ranking Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, which is the committee handling Haaland’s nomination. Barrasso decided.

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Hover over candidate pics for market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.
Odds for this page are averaged between FTX.com, Betfair and Smarkets

About these odds and FAQ By Maxim Lott and John Stossel Odds update every minute

Copyright 2020, FTX.com

Since the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) ended on February 28, political pundits have been paying close attention to how the field of 2024 Republican presidential candidates has been shaping up.

It’s still early for any definitive predictions, but there’s still plenty to learn from what GOP voters tell pollsters – especially regarding party loyalists’ feelings about Donald Trump.

2021 CPAC Straw Poll

The annual CPAC straw poll showed former President Trump as the prohibitive favorite to win the 2024 nomination if he wants it. A separate survey also asked Republican attendees for their preferences if Donald Trump is not included in the field of candidates.

• Trump solidified his position as the GOP’s de facto leader, whose nomination is guaranteed if he wants it.
• CPAC also made it abundantly clear that if the former President doesn’t decide to run again in 2024, his endorsement will likely determine who from the Republican Party does.

The display of Trump’s outsized influence over the party reverberated throughout the 2024 election betting lines.

• Conservatives like Ron DeSantis, who are similar to Trump in the vein of “culture war” heroes, have seen their chances of winning the nomination improve dramatically.
• Meanwhile, some former allies who fell out with the former President after January 6 saw their odds of representing the GOP lengthen.

Since CPAC weekend, the 2024 presidential election and Republican primary odds have seen the most movement since January 6. Before the Capitol riots, potential candidates’ betting lines remained relatively static after Election Night.

However, these latest changes are the most clarifying for political bettors.

• Before, there were still many questions regarding Donald Trump’s impeachment and the severity of the political fallout for the “insurrection.”
• Now, we can forecast the 2024 races more accurately, knowing that Trump suffered very few consequences beyond losing social media (and thus, his ability to speak directly to supporters without the press).
• He’s maintained control over the Republican base, which means the former President will undoubtedly play a critical role in all upcoming elections – either as a candidate or as kingmaker.

With Donald Trump’s post-CPAC popularity in mind, let’s look at the five Republicans with the best odds of winning the 2024 GOP nomination and the general election that follows.

1. Donald Trump

Naturally, political betting experts give Donald Trump the best odds of any Republican winning both the nomination and the 2024 presidential election.

After the January 6 Capitol siege and subsequent impeachment proceedings, the 45th President’s chances fell to roughly even with his former Vice President Mike Pence, hovering around +400.

Initially, many Republican officials’ responses to the riots were critical of Trump. The common belief was that they’d use the opportunity to purge the GOP of Trumpism by joining with Democrats to convict the former President, then disqualifying him from ever seeking public office again.

Unwavering Supporters

Yet, while conservative leaders publicly withdrew their support for Donald Trump, Republican voters stood firm. Polls taken after the events proved that Trump remained a popular, influential force on the right.

Meanwhile, establishment Republicans who most vocally opposed the former President’s continued participation in politics — like Rep. Liz Cheney from Wyoming — received intense backlash for breaking with the former NY real estate mogul. After voting to impeach Trump, Cheney’s support cratered in her home state.

Republican members of Congress saw the consequences of crossing Donald Trump and chose to hold the line.

Rather than defend what Trump said and whether that might have contributed to the violence at the Capitol, they argued the impeachment trial was unconstitutional – giving them an excuse to acquit without supporting or condemning the former President’s actions.

Trump’s GOP

Since his impeachment acquittal, Trump’s stranglehold on the Republican Party has been widely acknowledged. A common assumption is that the 2024 GOP nomination is his if he wants it. Prospective candidates are also acutely aware that even if he doesn’t run again, they’ll need his support to fill his void.

However, I think recency bias may have political pundits and handicappers overvaluing Donald Trump’s impact in 2024. He’ll play a substantial role in flipping congressional seats in 2022, but I expect his influence to wane by the next general election.

This year’s CPAC wasn’t a political conference so much as a Donald Trump spirit rally.

The entire weekend was about him – there was even a golden Trump statue on display!

• Yet, even with all that fanfare and immense excitement around his first public speech since leaving office, only 55% of CPAC straw poll respondents said they’d vote for Donald Trump in the 2024 primary.
• That number is more than twice that of second-place but still falls well short of expectations.
• I anticipated a percentage in the range of 80-90% — and so were the political oddsmakers!
• The over/under on his straw poll percentage was set at 84.5%, and the over was a –160 favorite.

Is his popularity slipping?

One reason Trump’s straw poll total may have been underwhelming is that Ron DeSantis took a sizable chunk of his support.

• The Florida Governor is similarly popular for his stout opposition to lockdowns and the anger he induces among the liberal elite.
• They’re both competing for the same “own the libs” culture war voters.
• Plus, CPAC was held in Florida, which may have skewed the results in favor of DeSantis.

The more significant issue for the former President’s influence long-term is his total banishment from social media.

Before, his ability to communicate directly to his base was an invaluable tool. Not only did his tweets outrage online liberals, but they allowed Trump to rebut unflattering media coverage.

Now, his only outlets are Newsmax, One America News Network, and the occasional Fox interview. Every other mainstream publication is openly antagonistic towards him.

How will Donald Trump stay relevant without an online presence?

We live in an attention economy; if he cannot generate headlines, his influence will fade.

First of all, I don’t think he’ll want to run for office again at 78-years-old.

However, the former President will still be relevant during the 2022 midterm primaries and will play a central role in removing some of his Republican detractors from their congressional seats. I think he’ll enjoy exercising so much influence over the GOP without any work or responsibility.

Trump will then mistakenly believe his position as kingmaker and leader of the party is secure.

By 2024, conservatives will be ready for a new hero to lead their war against “cancel culture,” “wokeness” and any other liberal ideals Republican politicians can latch onto instead of addressing their working-class base’s material needs.

2. Ron DeSantis

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is one of the most intriguing early hopefuls for the Republicans’ 2024 presidential nomination.

The 42-year-old conservative is relatively inexperienced in politics, having spent only five-and-a-half years representing Florida’s 6th district in the US House before being elected Governor in 2018. Whether his respective youth works to his benefit or detriment in 2024 remains to be seen.

DeSantis was one of President Trump’s staunchest allies while serving in the House.

The Tampa Bay Times reported that in 2017 he “made a name for himself attacking special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.”

In addition to showing loyalty to Donald Trump, Gov. DeSantis also holds some of the “populist right” positions commonly associated with “Trumpism.” The only issue on which the Governor breaks with Trump is on free trade; he disagreed with Trump’s tariffs.

Still, differing opinions on individual issues shouldn’t affect his odds of receiving an endorsement.

Time and time again, we’ve seen Trump endorse Republican candidates with establishment GOP politics – as long as they are loyal and say positive things about 45 publicly. The former President cares only about his personal relationships.

DeSantis has served Trump well in that regard.

Republican Anti-Lockdown Hero

Furthermore, his decision to open Florida’s economy without locking down over COVID made the Governor extremely popular among conservatives and independents who are skeptical or oppose strict pandemic restrictions.

Florida’s lax pandemic measures earned the Republican Governor national name recognition and a proven track record of handling issues of great importance to conservatives, even in the face of aggressive mainstream criticisms and political attacks.

In terms of securing an endorsement from Trump, Florida’s coronavirus response validates opinions President Trump was ostracized for while in office – like the need to open the economy and schools and that lockdowns do more damage to people’s lives than they’re worth given their ineffectiveness controlling viral spread.

(Disclaimer: I’m writing about this from Trump and DeSantis’s perspective, not my personal views necessarily. Although, by every observable measure, Florida’s COVID results have been better or on par with most of the country, despite staying open – suggesting nothing being done improves health outcomes.)

If the former President can personally benefit from granting his support, it’s nearly guaranteed to be factored heavily into his decision. As long as Florida’s pandemic outcomes continue to outperform or perform similarly to blue states, that bodes well for the former President, which bodes well for the Governor.

The Liberal Rage Factor

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, DeSantis strikes a similar nerve with Democrats as Donald Trump.

Republicans are already building their 2024 platform around resistance to “cancel culture,” lockdowns, critical race theory, and related ideologies perpetrated by liberal institutions.

Liberal media routinely frames the situation in Florida as far direr than reality, usually using less enlightening metrics like “cases” or “new variants” rather than hospitalizations and death rates to paint a misleading picture (including reporting total deaths without distinguishing between “deaths caused by COVID” and “deaths in which COVID was present” – and don’t get me started on the topics they ignore or misreport, i.e., asymptomatic carriers, preexisting conditions, age-related risk (or lack thereof) factors, the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in poor outcomes, or the apparent disappearance of the flu).

When the other side is steadily using Big Tech, academia, and prominent media outlets to silence and shame any dissenting voices that won’t blindly accept their ideologies, it drives reasonable people into the GOP’s arms.

All Republicans have to do is focus on liberal insanity related to cultural and identity issues, and they can win campaigns without offering any solutions to Americans’ material conditions.

Ron DeSantis is the perfect candidate for such a campaign.

• Loyal Trump supporter.
• Enthusiastically hated by Democrats and liberals.
• Represents a crucial swing state.
• And since, unlike Trump, he supports free trade instead of tariffs, DeSantis can appeal to Trump’s supporters without encountering the same resistance from the establishment and financial institutions.

3. Nikki Haley

Nikki Haley, the former Governor of South Carolina, doesn’t have a prayer of winning the Republican primaries, much less becoming President of the United States.

• On the one hand, she has the right look and has shown promise as a politician.
• Unfortunately (for her), on the other, her attempt to thread the needle between supporting Donald Trump and remaining in good standing with the GOP establishment donor class has gone disastrously.

Hardcore Trump supporters never bought Nikki Haley as an anti-establishment, America-first populist conservative in the first place.

Still, after serving in President Trump’s cabinet as US Ambassador to the United Nations, some saw the 49-year-old Indian American woman as the perfect compromise candidate to unite moderate Republicans and Trump supporters.

Premature Betrayal

Her fatal mistake was miscalculating the extent to which the fallout from the January 6 siege of the Capitol would sink Trump’s political career and erase his influence over the GOP.

Last month, Haley gave a blistering interview to Politico.

• She denounced the former President,
• questioned where he was getting his advice, and
• dismissed the possibility that her former boss would remain a relevant figure in right-wing politics.

When asked about holding the President accountable for January 6, the South Carolinian answered that she thinks “he’s going to find himself further and further isolated.”

Haley then predicted Trump’s political irrelevance.

“I don’t think he’s going to be in the picture,” she said, in response to a question about healing the Republican Party. “I don’t think he can. He’s fallen so far.”

“We need to acknowledge he let us down,” she said. “He went down a path he shouldn’t have, and we shouldn’t have followed him, and we shouldn’t have listened to him. And we can’t let that ever happen again.”

Reverse Card

Coincidentally, it’s Nikki Haley who’s found herself isolated since talking to Politico.

• She was not invited to appear at CPAC while Donald Trump was the keynote speaker.
• Presumably acting out of regret for her egregious tactical error, Haley requested a face-to-face meeting with the 45th President at Mar-a-Lago.
• She was denied.

She bet the house on January 6, driving the final nail into Trump’s political coffin, and figured she’d score some points by being the first 2024 presidential hopeful to throw dirt on his grave in Politico.

When the primaries rolled around, she’d point to the interview as proof of how “reasonable, “and “responsible” she was when nobody else would condemn him publicly (in the field of candidates; multiple Republican officials criticized Trump’s actions in January).

Then he survived.

“Come at the king…“

It’s like Omar Little told Wey Bey in The Wire: “You come at the king, you best not miss.”

Instead of scoring points with donors, party leaders, and voters by denouncing Donald Trump and his effect on the Republican Party, Haley found herself isolated and despised by the working-class, Trump-loving base of the GOP.

The only way I’d wager on Nikki Haley in 2024 is if I was reasonably confident Donald Trump will be purged from conservative politics within the next two years.

That’s pretty unlikely to happen – , I’m not sure it’d be enough.

Americans hate politicians and leaders who try to play all sides of an issue and only say what they really think when it’s convenient and free of risk.

Even if you despise Donald Trump, that naked opportunism is gross.

4. Mike Pence

Former Vice President Mike Pence is another compelling 2024 betting option in the field of potential Republican candidates.

• His odds have lengthened since being labeled a traitor and a coward by Trump diehards who faulted the then-Senate President for presiding over the certification of President Biden’s victory.
• They wanted him to break congressional and electoral norms by refusing to count the delegates from states President Trump’s team wanted to contest.
• This would eventually stalemate Congress’s joint session and either inspire an investigation into election integrity or force a House vote to elect the President.

Running mates or not, that’s asking for a lot.

Experts Down on Pence 2024

Some believe that after the split with Trump, Pence’s political career is finished. “I don’t believe Pence has a political future,” says Chris Barron, a conservative political strategist.

“For the wing of the GOP looking to turn the page on the Trump era, he will always be Trump’s vice president. For the pro-Trump wing of the party, he will always be viewed as the man who let Trump down. Whether it’s fair or not, I think Pence is a man without a constituency.”

Making Negatives into Positives

Assuming Trump doesn’t run again, Pence could find a way to turn the liabilities noted by Barron into strengths.

Sure, he wasn’t willing to attempt one of the most outrageous and unprecedented political/electoral gambits of all-time, but that’s forgivable.

What do Republicans think would have happened if the Vice President refused to certify the vote that day?

• Democrats and moderate Republicans would have made up some loophole to get around it and certified it anyway.
• “They couldn’t do anything like that, it’s against the constitution!” – I can hear you retort.
• To which say: What about the past year or so makes you think they care?
• Trump would challenge the certification, the Supreme Court would refuse to hear the case, and Joe Biden is still President.

Stayed Loyal

Instead, Pence quietly did his duty and ignored his running mate calling him a coward on Twitter.

When Biden was inaugurated, the former Vice President and the former Second Lady represented the outgoing administration out of respect for historical precedent.

Throughout it all, Mike Pence never did what Nikkie Haley tried.

He never tried to capitalize on Trump’s lowest political moment. That has to count for something.

“Electability” Prioritized vs. Incumbents

After four years of Biden/Harris, Republicans’ primary concern in 2024 will be electability.

• Assuming Donald Trump endorses someone like Ron DeSantis, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, or Tom Cotton, concerns over losing affluent suburbanites will resurface.
• With those candidates, you once again motivate moderates to vote Democrat, only without Trump’s cult of personality to drive Republican turnout.

The goal then becomes finding the compromise candidate who can bring suburban Republicans back to the tent without offending the Trump “right-wing populist” conservatives.

2016 Republican Nomination

I think the answer on which they’ll eventually land is Mike Pence.

• He stood by Trump for four years, right up to the point where he was asked to do something unreasonable.
• Even after being attacked, he never sought retribution or tried to parlay criticisms of his former running mate into political or business opportunities.
• Yet, despite being a loyal Vice President to Donald Trump, when the time he came, Pence still respected political conventions and classily attended Joe Biden’s inauguration.

It may seem like a stretch so early in the process, but take a long hard look at the probable Republican candidates.

If Donald Trump doesn’t run, it’s slim pickings.

• The controversial Trump-like options might emulate the former President’s polarizing rhetoric and ride his endorsement to a party nomination, but there’s no electoral path to victory without the moderates.
• Establishment candidates might attract suburban voters back to the GOP but won’t turn out the white working-class. Plus, they won’t generate enough enthusiasm to win the primary.

There aren’t many Republicans who can walk that line.

5. John Kasich

Even before Donald Trump scared away the affluent suburban conservatives and replaced them with working-class voters, nobody like Kasich.

He’s the least appealing candidate in the world.

• He spoke at the Democratic National Convention, but liberals and progressives can’t stand him.
• While Kasich didn’t gain any support amongst Dems, his presence at the DNC disgusted conservatives.
• There’s no party the Ohioan could adequately represent.

1968 Republican Nomination

I don’t know who will emerge from the divided GOP’s primaries in 2024 with the nomination, but I know it won’t be a Never Trumper.

Republican Presidential Nomination 2020

There’s no viable path to securing the delegates in the post-Trump world. You could lengthen his payout to +1400000 and I still wouldn’t bother.